FTMatchday 4

Burnley vs Liverpool: Prediction

📍 Turf Moor

Burnley0

Liverpool1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

1 goal

BurnleyLiverpool

Chimuanya Ugochukwuyellow card16'
22'Milos Kerkezyellow card
38'Milos Kerkezon
46'Alexis Mac Allisteron
Josh Cullenon63'
Loum Tchaounaon63'
72'Hugo Ekitikéon
75'Conor Bradleyyellow card
Chimuanya Ugochukwuyellow card84'
Chimuanya Ugochukwured card84'
Lyle Fosteron86'
87'Florian Wirtzon
87'Ibrahima Konateon
Jaidon Anthonyon89'
90'Mohamed Salahpenalty

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

BurnleyLiverpool

19%Possession81%
0Expected goals (xG)2
3Shots27
0Shots on target4
1Corners13
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0
3Offsides1
3Saves0
166Passes691

Line-ups

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
24Josh Cullen
29Josh Laurent
11Jaidon Anthony
8Chimuanya Ugochukwu
18Hjalmar Ekdal
9Lyle Foster
5Maxime Esteve
17Loum Tchaouna
3Quilindschy Hartman

Liverpool

11Mohamed Salah
4Virgil van Dijk
1Alisson Becker
5Ibrahima Konate
18Cody Gakpo
10Alexis Mac Allister
38Ryan Gravenberch
8Dominik Szoboszlai
7Florian Wirtz
22Hugo Ekitiké
6Milos Kerkez

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1497 – 1488

Recent form

BurnleyLWWL

LiverpoolWWW

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	38	+10	60
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Liverpool 1–1 Burnley2026-01-17

Match preview

Burnley host Liverpool in the Premier League on 14 September 2025. Burnley sit 19th on 22 points and Liverpool are 5th on 60. Burnley have won 2 of their last 4 (LWWL), while Liverpool have won 3 of 3 (WWW). In their last 1 meetings, Burnley won 0, Liverpool won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.