FTMatchday 8

Burnley vs Leeds United: Prediction

📍 Turf Moor

Burnley2

Leeds United0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

2 goals

BurnleyLeeds United

Chimuanya Ugochukwuassist Kyle Walker18'
Jaidon Anthonyyellow card52'
Jacob Bruun Larsenon58'
66'Brenden Aaronsonon
66'Jack Harrisonon
Loum Tchaounaassist Florentino Luís68'
73'Anton Stachon
Zian Flemmingon77'
81'Ethan Ampaduon
Chimuanya Ugochukwuon83'
Jaidon Anthonyon83'
Hannibal Mejbriyellow card90'
90'Pascal Struijkyellow card

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

BurnleyLeeds United

31%Possession69%
0Expected goals (xG)3
4Shots19
3Shots on target4
1Corners5
10Fouls7
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
1Offsides0
4Saves1
292Passes615

Line-ups

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
6Axel Tuanzebe
24Josh Cullen
7Jacob Bruun Larsen
16Florentino Luís
19Zian Flemming
11Jaidon Anthony
8Chimuanya Ugochukwu
5Maxime Esteve
3Quilindschy Hartman

Leeds United

26Karl Darlow
20Jack Harrison
9Dominic Calvert-Lewin
8Sean Longstaff
6Joe Rodon
4Ethan Ampadu
3Gabriel Gudmundsson
5Pascal Struijk
2Jayden Bogle
11Brenden Aaronson
18Anton Stach

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1497 – 1502

Recent form

BurnleyLDLLL

Leeds UnitedDLWDL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Leeds United	38	-7	47
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Leeds United 3–1 Burnley2026-05-01

Match preview

Burnley host Leeds United in the Premier League on 18 October 2025. Burnley sit 19th on 22 points and Leeds United are 14th on 47. Burnley have won 0 of their last 5 (LDLLL), while Leeds United have won 1 of 5 (DLWDL). In their last 1 meetings, Burnley won 0, Leeds United won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.