FTMatchday 28

Burnley vs Brentford: Prediction

📍 Turf Moor

Burnley3

Brentford4

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

7 goals

BurnleyBrentford

9'Mikkel Damsgaardassist Dango Ouattara
25'Igor Thiagoassist Mikkel Damsgaard
34'Kevin Schade
Michael Kayodeown goal45'
Jacob Bruun Larsenon46'
Josh Laurenton46'
Jaidon Anthonyassist Hannibal Mejbri47'
Zian Flemmingassist Hannibal Mejbri60'
72'Dango Ouattaraon
72'Kevin Schadeon
73'Yehor Yarmolyukon
James Ward-Prowseon75'
77'Igor Thiagoyellow card
Hannibal Mejbrion84'
Bashir Humphreysyellow card86'
Zian Flemmingon90'
90'Mikkel Damsgaardassist Rico Henry
90'Yehor Yarmolyukyellow card
Lyle Fosteryellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

BurnleyBrentford

41%Possession59%
0.97Expected goals (xG)1.94
12Shots16
3Shots on target7
4Corners8
9Fouls9
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Offsides0
2Saves1
317Passes450

Line-ups

Burnley

20James Ward-Prowse
1Martin Dubravka
4Joe Worrall
29Josh Laurent
7Jacob Bruun Larsen
19Zian Flemming
11Jaidon Anthony
5Maxime Esteve
28Hannibal Mejbri
12Bashir Humphreys
23Lucas Pires

Brentford

3Rico Henry
20Kristoffer Ajer
4Sepp van den Berg
24Mikkel Damsgaard
8Mathias Jensen
7Kevin Schade
19Dango Ouattara
33Michael Kayode
18Yehor Yarmolyuk
12Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson
9Igor Thiago

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1392 – 1533

Recent form

BurnleyDLLWD

BrentfordLWWDL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Brentford	38	+3	53
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Brentford 3–1 Burnley2025-11-29

Match preview

Burnley host Brentford in the Premier League on 28 February 2026. Burnley sit 19th on 22 points and Brentford are 9th on 53. Burnley have won 1 of their last 5 (DLLWD), while Brentford have won 2 of 5 (LWWDL). In their last 1 meetings, Burnley won 0, Brentford won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.