Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg: Prediction
📍 Stadion im Borussia-Park
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Borussia MönchengladbachLLLWD
HamburgWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | -6 | 4 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach2026-01-17
- Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 Hamburg2025-08-24
Why the model leans Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0, Hamburg 0, draws 2.
- League table: Borussia Mönchengladbach #17, Hamburg #11.
- Expected goals from the model: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.7, Hamburg 1.4.
Match preview
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 13 March 2027. Borussia Mönchengladbach sit 17th on 4 points and Hamburg are 11th on 9. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of their last 5 (LLLWD), while Hamburg have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0, Hamburg won 0 and 2 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, the draw 23% and Hamburg 31%, so Borussia Mönchengladbach are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
