Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin: Prediction
📍 Signal Iduna Park
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Borussia DortmundLDWWD
Union BerlinLWDDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Union Berlin | 7 | -10 | 7 |
Head to head
- Union Berlin 0–0 Borussia Dortmund2026-10-17
- Union Berlin 0–3 Borussia Dortmund2026-01-24
- Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin2025-08-31
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1529 vs 1455).
- Borussia Dortmund are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Union Berlin won 1 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Borussia Dortmund 2, Union Berlin 0, draws 1.
- League table: Borussia Dortmund #2, Union Berlin #15.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga on 27 February 2027. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 15 points and Union Berlin are 15th on 7. Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 5 (LDWWD), while Union Berlin have won 1 of 5 (LWDDD). In their last 3 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2, Union Berlin won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Borussia Dortmund 70%, the draw 17% and Union Berlin 13%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 2-0 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
