Borussia Dortmund vs RB Leipzig: Prediction
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Tipster consensus
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Recent form
Borussia DortmundDWWDW
RB LeipzigLLWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 7 | +6 | 12 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 1–1 RB Leipzig2025-10-04
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1538 vs 1472).
- Borussia Dortmund are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 5.
- League table: Borussia Dortmund #2, RB Leipzig #6.
- Expected goals from the model: Borussia Dortmund 2.0, RB Leipzig 1.2.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on 24 April 2027. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 15 points and RB Leipzig are 6th on 12. Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of their last 5 (DWWDW), while RB Leipzig have won 2 of 5 (LLWWL). In their last 1 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 0, RB Leipzig won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Borussia Dortmund 56%, the draw 22% and RB Leipzig 22%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 2-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
