Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim: Prediction
📍 Signal Iduna Park
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Borussia DortmundLDWWD
HoffenheimLLWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund2026-09-05
- Hoffenheim 2–1 Borussia Dortmund2026-04-18
- Borussia Dortmund 2–0 Hoffenheim2025-12-07
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1529 vs 1501).
- Borussia Dortmund are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Borussia Dortmund 2, Hoffenheim 1, draws 0.
- League table: Borussia Dortmund #2, Hoffenheim #16.
- Expected goals from the model: Borussia Dortmund 2.3, Hoffenheim 1.1.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund host Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on 30 January 2027. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 15 points and Hoffenheim are 16th on 6. Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 5 (LDWWD), while Hoffenheim have won 2 of 5 (LLWWL). In their last 3 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2, Hoffenheim won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Borussia Dortmund 65%, the draw 19% and Hoffenheim 16%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 2-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
