Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich: Prediction
📍 Signal Iduna Park
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Borussia DortmundLDWWD
Bayern MunichWDWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 7 | +18 | 15 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
Head to head
- Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund2026-10-31
- Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayern Munich2026-02-28
- Bayern Munich 2–1 Borussia Dortmund2025-10-18
Why the model leans Bayern Munich
- Close call: 37% Borussia Dortmund, 24% draw, 39% Bayern Munich.
- Bayern Munich rate higher on our strength scale (1561 vs 1529).
- Bayern Munich won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Borussia Dortmund 0, Bayern Munich 2, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Borussia Dortmund 1.5, Bayern Munich 1.6.
Match preview
Borussia Dortmund host Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on 6 March 2027. Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd on 15 points and Bayern Munich are 1st on 15. Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of their last 5 (LDWWD), while Bayern Munich have won 3 of 5 (WDWDW). In their last 3 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 0, Bayern Munich won 2 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Borussia Dortmund 37%, the draw 24% and Bayern Munich 39%, so Bayern Munich are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
