Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz: Prediction
📍 BayArena
Not enough past results yet.
Match events
2 goals- ⇄Arthuron46'
- ⇄Jonas Hofmannon59'
- ⇄Ernest Pokuon59'
- 66'Stefan Poschyellow card
- Edmond Tapsobayellow card66'
- 67'⚽Sheraldo Beckerassist Paul Nebel
- 69'⇄Sheraldo Beckeron
- ⇄Ezequiel Fernándezon72'
- 81'⇄Silvan Widmeron
- ⇄Exequiel Palacioson82'
- ⚽Jarell Quansahassist Christian Kofane88'
- 89'⇄Jae-Sung Leeon
- 90'Lennard Maloneyyellow card
Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.
Match stats
- 66%Possession34%
- 1.23Expected goals (xG)0.73
- 12Shots8
- 5Shots on target4
- 6Corners2
- 9Fouls13
- 1Yellow cards2
- 0Red cards0
- 2Offsides0
- 3Saves4
- 738Passes370
Line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen
- 7Jonas Hofmann
- 20Alex Grimaldo
- 14Patrik Schick
- 25Exequiel Palacios
- 8Robert Andrich
- 12Edmond Tapsoba
- 28Janis Blaswich
- 4Jarell Quansah
- 19Ernest Poku
- 13Arthur
- 6Ezequiel Fernández
Mainz
- 31Dominik Kohr
- 30Silvan Widmer
- 4Stefan Posch
- 2Phillipp Mwene
- 23Sheraldo Becker
- 7Jae-Sung Lee
- 8Paul Nebel
- 20Phillip Tietz
- 33Daniel Batz
- 6Kaishu Sano
- 48Kacper Potulski
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Bayer LeverkusenLWWDW
MainzLWWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 32 | +16 | 56 |
| 2 | Mainz | 32 | -8 | 39 |
Head to head
- Mainz 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen2026-10-10
- Mainz 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen2025-10-18
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Mainz in the Bundesliga on 28 February 2026. Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th on 56 points and Mainz are 10th on 39. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (LWWDW), while Mainz have won 3 of 5 (LWWWL). In their last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 2, Mainz won 0 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
