Bayer Leverkusen vs Hoffenheim: Prediction
📍 BayArena
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL
HoffenheimLLWWL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 2 | Hoffenheim | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Head to head
- Hoffenheim 3–0 Bayer Leverkusen2026-10-25
- Hoffenheim 1–0 Bayer Leverkusen2026-01-17
- Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 Hoffenheim2025-08-23
Why the model leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Bayer Leverkusen 0, Hoffenheim 3, draws 0.
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen #7, Hoffenheim #16.
- Expected goals from the model: Bayer Leverkusen 1.9, Hoffenheim 1.2.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on 2 March 2027. Bayer Leverkusen sit 7th on 12 points and Hoffenheim are 16th on 6. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Hoffenheim have won 2 of 5 (LLWWL). In their last 3 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 0, Hoffenheim won 3 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Bayer Leverkusen 54%, the draw 22% and Hoffenheim 24%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
