Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburg: Prediction
📍 BayArena
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
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Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL
HamburgWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 2 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
Head to head
- Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Hamburg2026-05-16
- Hamburg 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen2026-03-04
Why the model leans Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen rate higher on our strength scale (1506 vs 1455).
- Bayer Leverkusen are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Bayer Leverkusen 1, Hamburg 0, draws 1.
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen #7, Hamburg #11.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 8 May 2027. Bayer Leverkusen sit 7th on 12 points and Hamburg are 11th on 9. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Hamburg have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 1, Hamburg won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Bayer Leverkusen 61%, the draw 20% and Hamburg 19%, so Bayer Leverkusen are the slight favourites, with 2-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
