Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction
📍 BayArena
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
Bayer LeverkusenWWWLL
Borussia DortmundDWWDW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | +5 | 15 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | +2 | 12 |
Head to head
- Borussia Dortmund 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen2026-04-11
- Bayer Leverkusen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund2025-11-29
Why the model leans Borussia Dortmund
- Close call: 35% Bayer Leverkusen, 24% draw, 41% Borussia Dortmund.
- Borussia Dortmund rate higher on our strength scale (1538 vs 1506).
- Borussia Dortmund won 3 of their last 5.
- Head-to-head in our records: Bayer Leverkusen 1, Borussia Dortmund 1, draws 0.
- League table: Bayer Leverkusen #7, Borussia Dortmund #2.
Match preview
Bayer Leverkusen host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on 3 April 2027. Bayer Leverkusen sit 7th on 12 points and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd on 15. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 (WWWLL), while Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of 5 (DWWDW). In their last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 1, Borussia Dortmund won 1 and 0 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Bayer Leverkusen 35%, the draw 24% and Borussia Dortmund 41%, so Borussia Dortmund are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
