Augsburg vs Hamburg: Prediction
📍 WWK Arena
Tipster consensus
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Recent form
AugsburgLDLDL
HamburgWWWLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburg | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 2 | Augsburg | 7 | +3 | 8 |
Head to head
- Hamburg 1–1 Augsburg2026-04-04
- Augsburg 1–0 Hamburg2025-11-22
Why the model leans Augsburg
- Augsburg rate higher on our strength scale (1487 vs 1455).
- Augsburg are at home, which usually adds a few points of chance.
- Head-to-head in our records: Augsburg 1, Hamburg 0, draws 1.
- Expected goals from the model: Augsburg 1.9, Hamburg 1.3.
Match preview
Augsburg host Hamburg in the Bundesliga on 22 May 2027. Augsburg sit 12th on 8 points and Hamburg are 11th on 9. Augsburg have won 0 of their last 5 (LDLDL), while Hamburg have won 3 of 5 (WWWLL). In their last 2 meetings, Augsburg won 1, Hamburg won 0 and 1 ended level. TipKhel's model gives Augsburg 53%, the draw 22% and Hamburg 25%, so Augsburg are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
