Kick-off · Sun, 23 May, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 37
Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao: Prediction
Atlético Madrid60%Home win
Athletic Bilbao60% Home win22% Draw18% Away win
Tipster consensus · who picked what
0 tracked tipstersNo tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.
Most likely score1-0
Expected goals (model)1.86 – 0.91
Team rating (Elo)1517 – 1483
Recent form
Atlético MadridWWWDWAthletic BilbaoDDDLW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid | 9 | +10 | 22 |
| 2 | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | +5 | 12 |
Head to head
- Athletic Bilbao 3–0 Atlético Madrid2026-09-05
- Atlético Madrid 3–2 Athletic Bilbao2026-04-25
- Athletic Bilbao 1–0 Atlético Madrid2025-12-06
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
