FTMatchday 15

Athletic Bilbao vs Atlético Madrid: Prediction

📍 San Mamés Barria

Athletic Bilbao1

Atlético Madrid0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

1 goal

Athletic BilbaoAtlético Madrid

12'Conor Gallagheryellow card
Mikel Jauregizaryellow card14'
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarretayellow card20'
Aymeric Laporteyellow card28'
Aymeric Laporteon33'
46'Conor Gallagheron
62'Clément Lengleton
62'Thiago Almadaon
Gorka Guruzetaon66'
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarretaon66'
66'Julián Álvarezon
72'Nicolás Gonzálezon
Jesús Aresoon82'
Oihan Sanceton82'
Álex Berenguerassist Nico Williams85'
90'Kokeyellow card

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Athletic BilbaoAtlético Madrid

44%Possession56%
1Expected goals (xG)1
14Shots7
3Shots on target3
5Corners6
9Fouls12
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
1Offsides2
3Saves2
386Passes487

Line-ups

Athletic Bilbao

14Aymeric Laporte
17Yuri Berchiche
7Álex Berenguer
1Unai Simón
11Gorka Guruzeta
8Oihan Sancet
16Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
10Nico Williams
4Aitor Paredes
12Jesús Areso
18Mikel Jauregizar

Atlético Madrid

13Jan Oblak
15Clément Lenglet
17Dávid Hancko
16Nahuel Molina
4Conor Gallagher
23Nicolás González
19Julián Álvarez
18Marc Pubill
11Thiago Almada
8Pablo Barrios
20Giuliano Simeone

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1483 – 1501

Recent form

Athletic BilbaoLWDWL

Atlético MadridWWWWL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Madrid	35	+16	62
2	Athletic Bilbao	35	-12	41

Head to head

Athletic Bilbao 3–0 Atlético Madrid2026-09-05
Atlético Madrid 3–2 Athletic Bilbao2026-04-25

Match preview

Athletic Bilbao host Atlético Madrid in the La Liga on 6 December 2025. Athletic Bilbao sit 13th on 41 points and Atlético Madrid are 4th on 62. Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of their last 5 (LWDWL), while Atlético Madrid have won 4 of 5 (WWWWL). In their last 2 meetings, Athletic Bilbao won 1, Atlético Madrid won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.