Kick-off · Sat, 21 Nov, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 11
Aston Villa vs Sunderland: Prediction
Aston Villa56%Home win
Sunderland56% Home win23% Draw21% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.85 – 1.06
Team rating (Elo)1518 – 1451
Recent form
Aston VillaLWDWWSunderlandLLLLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 8 | -8 | 5 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland2026-04-19
- Sunderland 1–1 Aston Villa2025-09-21
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
