FTMatchday 17

Aston Villa vs Manchester United: Prediction

📍 Villa Park

Aston Villa2

Manchester United1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Aston VillaManchester United

Morgan Rogersassist John McGinn45'
45'Matheus Cunhaassist Patrick Dorgu
46'Bruno Fernandeson
Morgan Rogersassist Ollie Watkins57'
68'Manuel Ugarteyellow card
72'Diogo Dalotyellow card
73'Benjamin Šeškoon
73'Manuel Ugarteon
Ian Maatsenon75'
Ollie Watkinson75'
Amadou Onanaon84'
John McGinnon84'
84'Leny Yoroon
Boubacar Kamaraon88'
Lamare Bogardeyellow card90'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Aston VillaManchester United

43%Possession57%
1.54Expected goals (xG)1.33
12Shots15
4Shots on target6
5Corners5
4Fouls2
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Offsides1
5Saves2
351Passes460

Line-ups

Aston Villa

23Emiliano Martinez
8Youri Tielemans
11Ollie Watkins
7John McGinn
3Victor Lindelof
2Matty Cash
4Ezri Konsa
44Boubacar Kamara
24Amadou Onana
27Morgan Rogers
22Ian Maatsen

Manchester United

23Luke Shaw
8Bruno Fernandes
2Diogo Dalot
10Matheus Cunha
7Mason Mount
31Senne Lammens
30Benjamin Šeško
25Manuel Ugarte
15Leny Yoro
13Patrick Dorgu
26Ayden Heaven

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1526 – 1502

Recent form

Aston VillaWWWWW

Manchester UnitedLWDWD

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	38	+19	71
2	Aston Villa	38	+7	65

Head to head

Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa2026-03-15

Match preview

Aston Villa host Manchester United in the Premier League on 21 December 2025. Aston Villa sit 4th on 65 points and Manchester United are 3rd on 71. Aston Villa have won 5 of their last 5 (WWWWW), while Manchester United have won 2 of 5 (LWDWD). In their last 1 meetings, Aston Villa won 0, Manchester United won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.