Kick-off · Sat, 26 Dec, 06:00 pm ISTMatchday 17
Aston Villa vs Leeds United: Prediction
Aston Villa47%Home win
Leeds United47% Home win24% Draw29% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.61 – 1.21
Team rating (Elo)1518 – 1516
Recent form
Aston VillaLWDWWLeeds UnitedWDLDD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 1–1 Leeds United2026-02-21
- Leeds United 1–2 Aston Villa2025-11-23
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
