Kick-off · Thu, 3 Dec, 01:30 am ISTMatchday 13
Aston Villa vs Everton: Prediction
Aston Villa52%Home win
Everton52% Home win24% Draw24% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.75 – 1.12
Team rating (Elo)1518 – 1480
Recent form
Aston VillaLWDWWEvertonDWDLL| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 2 | Everton | 8 | -1 | 10 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 0–1 Everton2026-01-18
- Everton 0–0 Aston Villa2025-09-13
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
