FTMatchday 7

Aston Villa vs Burnley: Prediction

📍 Villa Park

Aston Villa2

Burnley1

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

3 goals

Aston VillaBurnley

17'Lyle Fosteryellow card
Donyell Malenassist Boubacar Kamara25'
Lucas Digneyellow card53'
59'Loum Tchaounaon
59'Jaidon Anthonyon
Donyell Malenassist Morgan Rogers63'
Ollie Watkinson67'
John McGinnon67'
69'Lyle Fosteron
78'Chimuanya Ugochukwuassist Quilindschy Hartman

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Aston VillaBurnley

58%Possession42%
1Expected goals (xG)0
12Shots3
5Shots on target2
5Corners4
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Offsides4
1Saves3
441Passes329

Line-ups

Aston Villa

23Emiliano Martinez
12Lucas Digne
11Ollie Watkins
7John McGinn
2Matty Cash
4Ezri Konsa
17Donyell Malen
14Pau Torres
44Boubacar Kamara
27Morgan Rogers
26Lamare Bogarde

Burnley

2Kyle Walker
1Martin Dubravka
6Axel Tuanzebe
24Josh Cullen
29Josh Laurent
16Florentino Luís
11Jaidon Anthony
9Lyle Foster
5Maxime Esteve
17Loum Tchaouna
3Quilindschy Hartman

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1526 – 1497

Recent form

Aston VillaLLDDW

BurnleyLLDLL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Aston Villa	38	+7	65
2	Burnley	38	-37	22

Head to head

Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa2026-05-10

Match preview

Aston Villa host Burnley in the Premier League on 5 October 2025. Aston Villa sit 4th on 65 points and Burnley are 19th on 22. Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5 (LLDDW), while Burnley have won 0 of 5 (LLDLL). In their last 1 meetings, Aston Villa won 0, Burnley won 0 and 1 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.