FTMatchday 26

Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Prediction

📍 Villa Park

Aston Villa1

Brighton and Hove Albion0

Not enough past results yet.

Match events

1 goal

Aston VillaBrighton and Hove Albion

2'Carlos Balebayellow card
22'Carlos Balebaon
23'Joel Veltmanyellow card
Emiliano Martinezyellow card41'
41'Jan Paul van Heckeyellow card
Morgan Rogersyellow card50'
Emiliano Buendiaon60'
Jadon Sanchoon60'
61'Jan Paul van Heckeon
Amadou Onanaon74'
Ollie Watkinson75'
81'Kaoru Mitomaon
81'Danny Welbeckon
81'Diego Gómezon
Douglas Luizon84'
Jack Hinshelwoodown goal86'

Events from TheSportsDB. They can lag the live score by a few minutes.

Match stats

Aston VillaBrighton and Hove Albion

50%Possession50%
0.72Expected goals (xG)0.50
15Shots9
1Shots on target3
7Corners5
9Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
0Offsides3
3Saves2
418Passes418

Line-ups

Aston Villa

23Emiliano Martinez
5Tyrone Mings
10Emiliano Buendia
11Ollie Watkins
21Douglas Luiz
4Ezri Konsa
19Jadon Sancho
24Amadou Onana
27Morgan Rogers
22Ian Maatsen
26Lamare Bogarde

Brighton and Hove Albion

18Danny Welbeck
34Joel Veltman
5Lewis Dunk
30Pascal Gross
22Kaoru Mitoma
1Bart Verbruggen
24Ferdi Kadıoğlu
6Jan Paul van Hecke
17Carlos Baleba
13Jack Hinshelwood
25Diego Gómez

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score–

Expected goals (model)–

Team rating (Elo)1526 – 1535

Recent form

Aston VillaDLWLD

Brighton and Hove AlbionDDLDL

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Aston Villa	38	+7	65
2	Brighton and Hove Albion	38	+6	53

Head to head

Brighton and Hove Albion 4–0 Aston Villa2026-08-23
Brighton and Hove Albion 3–4 Aston Villa2025-12-03

Match preview

Aston Villa host Brighton and Hove Albion in the Premier League on 11 February 2026. Aston Villa sit 4th on 65 points and Brighton and Hove Albion are 8th on 53. Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5 (DLWLD), while Brighton and Hove Albion have won 0 of 5 (DDLDL). In their last 2 meetings, Aston Villa won 1, Brighton and Hove Albion won 1 and 0 ended level. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.