Kick-off · Thu, 11 Feb, 01:30 am ISTMatchday 25
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Prediction
Aston Villa44%Home win
Bournemouth44% Home win25% Draw31% Away win
Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.55 – 1.26
Team rating (Elo)1518 – 1534
Recent form
Aston VillaLWDWWBournemouthDLLWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
| 2 | Bournemouth | 8 | -1 | 9 |
Head to head
- Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa2026-02-07
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
