Kick-off · Sat, 20 Mar, 08:30 pm ISTMatchday 30
Arsenal vs Sunderland: Prediction
Arsenal70%Home win
Sunderland70% Home win18% Draw12% Away win
Most likely score2-0
Expected goals (model)2.30 – 0.85
Team rating (Elo)1644 – 1451
Recent form
ArsenalWLWWWSunderlandLLLLD| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 8 | -8 | 5 |
Head to head
- Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal2026-09-12
- Arsenal 3–0 Sunderland2026-02-07
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
