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Kick-off · Matchday 5

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction

Arsenal
54%Home win
Borussia Dortmund

Tipster consensus

0 tracked tipsters

No tracked tipster has called this match yet. Picks appear here as soon as they are posted.

Most likely score1-1
Expected goals (model)1.88 – 1.19
Team rating (Elo)1532 – 1529

Recent form

ArsenalWWWDW
Borussia DortmundDLDWW
#TeamPGDPts

Head to head

Not enough past results yet.

Match preview

Arsenal host Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League on 24 November 2026. Arsenal sit 16th on 7 points and Borussia Dortmund are 30th on 6. Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5 (WWWDW), while Borussia Dortmund have won 2 of 5 (DLDWW). There is no recent head-to-head record between these sides in our data. TipKhel's model gives Arsenal 54%, the draw 22% and Borussia Dortmund 24%, so Arsenal are the slight favourites, with 1-1 the single most likely score. These are probabilities from past results, not guarantees: football upsets happen every week.

How this is worked out

Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The prediction is locked at kick-off and never edited.

Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.

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