Kick-off · Sat, 17 Apr, 07:30 pm ISTMatchday 32
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Prediction
Arsenal63%Home win
Aston Villa63% Home win20% Draw17% Away win
Most likely score2-0
Expected goals (model)2.07 – 0.95
Team rating (Elo)1644 – 1518
Recent form
ArsenalWLWWWAston VillaLWDWW| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | +8 | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | -3 | 11 |
Head to head
- Aston Villa 0–1 Arsenal2026-08-31
- Arsenal 4–1 Aston Villa2025-12-30
- Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal2025-12-06
How this is worked out
Each club has an Elo rating that moves after every result (bigger wins move it more, home sides get a small boost). We turn the rating gap into expected goals and use a Poisson model to get win, draw and loss chances. The read is frozen at kick-off and never edited.
Probabilities, not promises. For analysis and entertainment only. 18+.
